Abstract:
With the announcement of the European Cup entry list, major media predicted the favorites to win. England, France, and Germany are optimistic, and Spain and Portugal also have a chance. Winning the championship requires both strength and luck. The French team has been tempered and is regarded as the biggest favorite. But football is full of variables, and any team has a chance to win.
As the European Cup participating powers have successively announced the 26-man entry list, predictions about the champion have also followed.
This championship prediction before the start of the game is entirely based on the ranking estimate of the comprehensive strength such as the depth of the team lineup and the level of the stars. It does not have much technical content. As long as you are a senior fan, the prediction is roughly the same.
The prediction rankings of major professional media and authoritative institutions may be slightly different, but the top six are roughly the same. For example: The prediction given by The Sun is that England is first, with a probability of 31.6%; France is second, with a probability of 29.6%; Germany is third, with a probability of 12.9%. As a tabloid that started out with gossip and lace, although the prediction of The Sun was given on December 5, 2023, it is not too outrageous.
The famous data website “Squawka” calculated and deduced through supercomputers and gave the following predictions: England is first, with a 25% chance of winning; France is second, with a 20% chance of winning; Germany is third, with a 15.4% chance of winning; Spain and Portugal are tied for fourth, with an 11.1% chance of winning; Italy is sixth, with a 6.7% chance of winning; the Netherlands and Belgium are tied for seventh, with a 5.9% chance of winning.
OPTA, a data agency that has gained fame in recent years, recently used supercomputers to simulate the European Cup 10,000 times and calculated the probability of winning: England first, 19.9%; France second, 19.1%; Germany third, 12.4%; Spain fourth, 9.8%; Portugal fifth, 9.2%; Netherlands sixth, 5.1%; Italy seventh, 5.0%. Belgium is eighth, at 4.7%.
After reading the prediction, let’s look at the odds of winning.
England first, 1 to 4; France second, 1 to 5; Germany third, 1 to 6.5; Portugal and Spain tied for fourth, 1 to 9; Italy sixth, 1 to 15; Netherlands and Belgium tied for eighth, 1 to 17.
As the saying goes, laymen see the doorway, experts see the excitement.
Judging from these predictions and odds, the top three are England, France, and Germany; Spain and Portugal, the Iberian brothers, occupy the fourth and fifth places; Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium occupy the sixth, seventh, and eighth places.
As long as there is no magical team like the Greek team in the 2004 European Cup, the champion of this European Cup will definitely come from these eight teams.
However, based on the principle of seeking truth from facts, Italy and Belgium can basically be ruled out in advance. The Netherlands is mostly useless. Spain and Portugal have the strength to win the championship, but they need very good luck, especially Portugal, which has a lot of problems despite its rich talent.
Therefore, the teams that really have the strength and hope to win the championship are England, France, and Germany.
England is the top favorite to win the championship in all major lists, and its players are also the most valuable, but coach Southgate is recognized as the biggest shortcoming of this England team. The so-called hot favorites must die, and it may be cold again this time.
As the host, the German team should also show something this time. Since the semi-finals of the 2016 European Cup, the German team has been paying the price for going the wrong way – being eliminated in the World Cup group stage and performing poorly in the European Cup. In this European Cup, the German team has the advantage of time, place, and people, and the three generations of old, middle-aged, and young people are working together, with obvious home advantage. But whether it can win the championship really requires a bit of luck, and it depends on how the coach Nagelsmann controls it.
Personally, I think the French team is the real first favorite to win the European Cup.
After the tempering of the 2016 European Cup final and the 2018 and 2022 World Cup finals, this French team is the strongest in Europe. Not only is the lineup balanced and reasonable, but there are also super-powerful superstars. The level of coach Deschamps is obviously higher. After experiencing the pain of losing the European Cup twice, this time it is determined to win.
Of course, the prediction of winning the championship is just a way to relieve boredom, and it must not be taken seriously. The ball is round, and Georgia has a chance to win, right?
